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A meta-analysis of Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine data examining the reasons for differences in efficacy has been published on MedRxiv. The report is yet to be peer reviewed. The authors found the difference between published vaccine efficacy rates is almost 50% due to the levels of COVID-19 prevalence. Prevalence relates to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the population. If there is higher prevalence of COVID-19, the efficacy of the vaccine significantly falls.
The authors suggest that “when efficacy results of Phase 3 trials are reported, they should be reported in conjunction with the level of pandemic prevalence associated with the trial sites” in order to be interpreted meaningfully.
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