PandemicPreparedness

Several recently published studies have examined the wider effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population.

In a study published in Scientific Reports, the Spanish researchers estimate that over 20.5 million years of life have already been lost to COVID-19. This was calculated from the nearly 1.28 million deaths across 81 country by 6 January 2021, with an average loss of 16 years of life per fatality. These figures are likely to be an underestimate due to the likely undercount of the total death toll.

This equates to 2-9 times more years of life lost than seasonal flu and 2-8 times more years of life lost to traffic accidents.

Further analysis revealed that three-quarters of the total years of life lost were due to fatalities in people under 75 years with almost one-third due to deaths in the under 55 age group. Furthermore, men lost 45% more life years than women.

Data from the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Vital Statistics report in February [PDF] has found life expectancy has dropped by about 1 year across the United States. They state for “the first half of 2020, life expectancy at birth for the total U.S. population was 77.8 years, declining by 1.0 year from 78.8 in 2019.”

This aligns with recent data from Spain, England and Wales which found life expectancy had also decreased by around one year. France and Sweden have also found life expectancy is up to half a year shorter for men and several months shorter for women.

For the US there were differences between the sexes; for males it fell by 1.2 years to be 75.1 by June 2020 and for females it declined 0.9 years to 80.5 by June 2020. Further racial differences were noted, with life expectancy decreasing by 2.7 years for non-Hispanic black people, 1.9 years for Hispanic people and 0.8 years for non-Hispanic white people.

And with 2020 being one of the deadliest years in the nation's history, life expectancy figures are likely to drop further once data for the second half of 2020 is analysed.

Finally, a media report explores the likely drop in population demographics due to the pandemic. Australia’s population is predicted to be 4% lower in 2031 than previously predicted pre-pandemic. Japan reported a 5% decrease in pregnancies by November 2020.