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According to modelling by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), recent detections of a new COVID-19 variant point to a likely take over as the dominant circulating strain, replacing the current BA.4/BA.5 Omicron subtypes. A recent report points to detection of the new Variant of Interest (VOI) designated BQ.1 and related BQ.1.1 in recent weeks and that their proportion is increasing. Based on modelling the projected growth of these new variants, by mid-November they could be responsible for over 50% of all COVID-19 cases and by the start of 2023 could be more than 80%. The ECDC reported that the countries with the highest samples for week 40 in 2022 include France, Belgium, Ireland, The Netherlands, and Italy.
The two new sub-lineages are closely related to BA.4/BA.5 but appear to have an increased growth rate which may be due to "immune escape". This is where genetic changes in the virus mean it is no longer recognised by a person's immune system primed by either vaccines or prior infection. Based on the limited data available, the new variants do not appear to cause more severe infections but European countries are being asked to look for and report any upticks in both COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations in the coming months.
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