PandemicPreparedness

5 December: A steep rise in COVID-19 cases was recorded in Tshwane between 29 November and 3 December with over 9,900 new cases recorded during the five-day-period. A sharp rise in hospital admissions was also noted between mid and late November. It was observed that the majority of in-patients (about 70%) did not require oxygen support during hospitalisation nor did they present with respiratory symptoms. Of the patients that required oxygen support, nine were diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia and were prescribed steroids as the main treatment. In the last 18 months, oxygen requirement by in-patients was observed to be higher.

It was also seen that the majority of the current in-patient cases were unvaccinated or with unknown vaccination status. About 80% of the admissions were people below 50-years-old, 19% were children and 28% were between 30 and 39 years of age. A death rate of 6.6% was observed, which was similar to the previous death rate. Patients had a shorter length of stay of 2.8 days in hospital while the average length of stay in the past 18 months was 8.5 days. However researchers state that these could early observations and the trends need to be watched closely.

3 December: The Minister of Health announced the fourth wave of COVID-19 is underway, and "there is a much steeper upward curve than has ever been seen in the last three waves." Regarding the Omicron variant he added "indications are that this variant is highly transmissible including infecting a few people who are vaccinated but causing mostly mild illness especially for those who are vaccinated, with hospital admissions dominated by those who are not vaccinated and young people below 40 years most of whom are not vaccinated."

Over 16,000 new COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in the last day. The majority are in Gauteng province. The latest epidemiology update 2 December shows the 7 day moving average of new cases is rapidly increasing, from 1,010 on 23 November, to 4,814 on 1 December. Over 20% of tests are positive for COVID-19. The daily "effective reproductive number" is over 1 in all provinces, and above 2 in Guateng. Hospitalisations are rising in Guateng.

26 November: The South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases advises "Currently no unusual symptoms have been reported following infection with the B.1.1.529 variant and as with other variants some individuals are asymptomatic."

25 November: Authorities have detected a new variant in South Africa, B.1.1.529, "with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility". It was identified in 77 samples from Gauteng province between 12 and 20 November. The Network for Genomic Surveillance South Africa (NGS-SA) advises that it may already be in most provinces in the country. They warn the variant appears to be becoming dominant, and whilst the impact is uncertain, the strain may potentially be more transmissible, more infective and may have implications for current vaccines. Nevertheless "vaccines remain critical".