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Modelling by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates mpox cases could reach or surpass levels seen during the 2022 outbreak due to low vaccination rates in at-risk communities. While the detection of new mpox cases has sharply decreased in the past months with as few as one new case detected per day, it is estimated that only 23% of the at-risk population has been fully vaccinated against mpox. This low vaccination rate increases the risk of resurgence of new outbreaks should new infections enter from other areas or countries.
Other factors which could contribute to an increase in cases are:
CDC's mpox vaccine locator can be found here.
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