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A study (not yet peer reviewed) investigated the estimated transmissibility of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, that appeared in southeast England. The authors approximated that this strain is 56% more transmissible than the original strain, but they were unable to find evidence of the difference in severity. Nonetheless, the increased transmissibility could lead to increase in incidence. Even with the tiered restrictions that have been put in place since 19 December, hospitalisations and deaths could reach higher levels in 2021 compared to 2020. This study suggests that in order to reduce the reproduction number to below 1, national lockdown must be implemented along with the closure of schools and universities. Vaccination programs should also be accelerated to reduce the burden of disease.
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