ECDC risk assessment on the spread of COVID-19 variants in the EU and the UK

15 February, 2021

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has released a risk assessment on the SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in countries in the European Union and the United Kingdom. The increased transmissibility of the variants is associated with the risk of further spread to be high to very high for the general popualtion and very high for those who are vulnerable.

Modelling analysis has shown that an increase in cases and deaths from COVID-19 will increase significantly in the next months if non-pharmaceutical interventions are not maintained and strengthened. The report also states, "Although vaccination will mitigate the effect of replacement with more transmissible variants, and seasonality could potentially reduce transmission during the summer months, easing measures prematurely will lead to a rapid increase in incidence rates, detection of severe cases and mortality." Vaccines must be deployed rapidly especially among priority groups in order to reduce hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths.

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