ECDC COVID-19 risk assessment updated

10 August, 2020

In the eleventh update on COVID-19, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) examines the increase of COVID-19 cases following eased restrictions. They analyse the risk of further escalation of COVID-19 in the countries that have reported a recent increase in COVID-19 cases. They also examine the risk of further escalation of COVID-19 across all EU/EEA countries and the UK.

Cases peaked in the region in early April 2020. Response measures varied, but overall reduced cases and alleviated healthcare burden. As these measures were lifted, many countries reported increased cases. Some of that increase can be attributed to wider testing, which is now detecting mild and asymptomatic cases. However, there is true resurgence in several countries. ECDC recommends such countries re-instate selected measures through a "phased, step-wise and sustainable approach" based on continuous monitoring and assessment of the epidemiological situation. The measures need to be sustainable. Thorough testing and contact tracing are key elements of a response plan.

"Overall, the risk of further across all EU/EEA countries and the UK (assuming they have adequate contact tracing and testing capacity), is moderate for countries that continue to implement and enforce multiple measures including physical distancing and very high for countries that do not implement or enforce such measures."

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